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| Unfortunately, this Graphic Describes neither the Red Bulls nor My Contest Idea |
First off,
an update on the SUB WATCH predictor contest. While I knew it would be
incredibly popular, I had no idea that it would garner TWO entries! Okay, so my
eyes may have been bigger than my stomach on this one but, all the same, shame
you. Shame on all of you. This is why we can’t have nice things. I refuse to
prolong this farce so will pre-empt things by awarding a participation beverage
to both entrants, Matt Kremkau and James
Justice. Thanks, guys and congratulations! Winning always feels great, right?
DM me on Twitter to claim your prizes.
Two-Week Recap
Moving on.
Two games have taken place since the last SUB WATCH, from which the Red Bulls
garnered a single point in the home draw with DC. While there hasn’t been any
scoring from New York, there has been plenty of sub action, and those who
followed the SUB WATCH advice have raked in some cash.
As a
reminder, SUB WATCH told you to Hold Jonny Steele, Buy Moreno and Lade, and
take the Under at 80’. Lo
and behold, against DC, Young Connor Lade entered the game in the 89th
minute, replacing Eric Alexander, and Moreno came in at 92’ for Monsieur Henry.
They were preceded by Juninho at 68’ for Steele. That’s 3 for 4, kids. If you
did not come away a winner, you have only yourself to blame.
Much like
the Red Bulls, the results were not as strong from the Montreal match. Once
again, YCL was subbed in, replacing Steele at 69’. Josue Martinez and Lloyd
Same saw action at 79’ and 83’ respectively.
More for
the punters below, but let’s take a closer look at what’s happening in terms of
sub production for each game.
SCUM
Eric
Alexander had a standout game in the midfield, stat-wise, completing 28 of 33
passes (85%), including 2 “key passes.” He also had two shots, though off
target. YCL was going to be hard-pressed to perform similarly, especially
coming on so late in the game. He really had no statistically significant
production, going 0 for 3 on dribbles and 0 for 1 on passing. The only category
where Lade came close to matching Alexander was in “tackle and possession lost,”
where he racked up 5 compared to Alexander’s 7 in a fraction of the minutes.
The
competition between Jonny Steele and Juninho was MUCH fiercer. Steele had a
very active day, completing 27 of 37 passes (72%), 2 of 5 successful crosses, 2
key passes and 2 shots (off target.) Juninho was up to the task, completing 18
of 21 passes (86%!) with 1 key pass and 1 successful cross. The Brazilian did
pick up a yellow card as well. However, he was better in keeping possession,
only losing the ball on 6 tackles (1 loss per 6 minutes) compared to Steele’s
14 (1 per 4.9 mn).
As
for Moreno replacing Henry, I’ll let the
heat maps tell the tale:
 |
| Henry |
 |
| Moreno |
L'IMPACT
In the
great white north, Steele again had a very active game, going 22 of 32 on
passes, but had possession troubles again, losing the ball 13 times in 69
minutes of action—nearly identical to the DC game. He also picked up a yellow.
YCL was much better this game, going 9 for 12 on passes (75%) and only losing
the ball 3 times on tackles.
In his
debut appearance, Peguy impressed with an efficient if not flashy game. This
was born out by the stats, where he went 21 of 24 on passes, an 87.5% success
rate, beating Juninho’s DC performance. He also had 4 shots (2 on goal). There’s no way Martinez was going to have that
sort of game, but he did well in about 16 minutes of playing time, completing 3
of 4 passes.
Finally,
Red Bulls fans saw the return of Lloyd Sam to the pitch, when he subbed in for
a busy Eric Alexander. While RBNY didn’t come close to dominating Montreal they
way they did DC, you can’t blame Alexander’s work rate: 44 of 54 passes
completed, including 1 “through ball;” 3 of 5 successful dribbles and 2 shots,
both off target. Alexander was
frequently dispossessed, losing the ball 13 times and picking up a yellow. Sam
completed 2 of 3 passes and lost possession once.
For The Punters
So what do
the above stats tell us for future money making opportunities? While I must
remind you that SUB WATCH is for informational purposes only, and all wagering
is at your own risk, I do think there is some good data here.
Juninho
clearly had the best performance of all 6 subs, but he should return to the
starting lineup soon. That means Jonny Steele and Eric Alexander are the two
bench candidates. Between the two, I think Steele is likely to ride the pines,
as Petke feels more comfortable with him in a central role, and as a tougher
presence late in the game. His work rate, like Alexanders, has been impressive,
so his value has increased. STEELE: BUY
What was
more noticeable to me was the return of Young Connor Lade. Whether he had a
foot in Petke’s doghouse or not, 2 successive appearances after zero in the
first two games shows the tide has turned. In fact, he has rocketed to the top of the Sub Minutes Played chart with 31! We may also see him called into
defensive action after Barklage’s red card. You can still pick up Lade on the
cheap, but not for much longer. LADE:
BUY
What of
Lloyd Sam? A player who was obviously in the doghouse? I wouldn’t be laying a
ton of cash on the Englishman, but was surprised to see him get some time, even
with the Red Bulls shorthanded. I say SAM:
HOLD
That’s all
well and good, but there is better opportunity with Petke. In each of the last
two games, he has set new marks for latest first sub, 68’ vs. DC and 69’ vs
Montreal. Could we see 70’ against
Philthy? SUB WATCH thinks so. FIRST SUB:
OVER 69’
Petke also reversed a trend, with an early
last sub at 83’, but the red card may have influenced that. Otherwise, Petke’s
final sub has come at minute 92 or higher! Will fans soon be pining for Hans
Backe?
Well, that’s
all the sub news that’s fit to print. I’ll see you at the Cathedral of
Football, Red Bull Arena (Built by Makita) to watch the mighty Red Bulls defeat
Philthadelphia. SUB WATCH, out!
Sub Watch: Game 5
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